Colombian officials wary of weakened FARC, ELN

The Colombian defence ministry found in mid-December that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the guerrilla force that has battled the state for decades, now had fewer than 8,000 members, compared to about 20,000 some 12 years ago, El Espectador reported on 26 December. A ministry report found that the smaller National Liberation Army (ELN) had fewer than 1,500, down from about 4,000 operatives in 2002; it attributed the fall to sustained military action. The report stated that in 2012 Colombia reduced FARC numbers by just under 18 per cent compared to 2011 and just under 22 per cent for the ELN. FARC spokesmen have on occasions insisted the state cannot defeat them and has been forced to initiate negotiations. Colombia's police chief José Roberto León Riaño separately told RCN Radio on 26 December that he feared the FARC were preparing a "terrorist wave" in 2013 and had not respected a unilateral two-month ceasefire purportedly begun on 20 November. Police he said observed that the FARC had in preceding weeks acquired "explosives, war material, most probably to prepare a terrorist wave when the ceasefire," for which he said police were also preparing. The army commander General Sergio Mantilla Sanmiguel concurred, speaking to RCN Radio on 24 December; he said "the FARC are arming...searching and storing" but also making explosives "to attack the population," El Espectador reported. This "is not a serious ceasefire" he said, observing that "they look like they will begin to launch indiscriminate attacks in January." Mantilla put at 1,500 the number of rebels of both armies arrested in 2012.